Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1987…6487 other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1689 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 46L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day1689.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$39
politics 28% −$1
world 27% +$19
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1689 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +2.0% -7.7% 16% 2% -9.2%
≤30d 55 +2.0% -7.7% 16% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 55 +2.0% -7.7% 16% 2% -9.2%
all 55 +2.0% -7.7% 16% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1689.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 2% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 2% -17.9%
15% -24.6% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
30.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×56.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.3 per $1 lost it wins $12.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$543
Trades / day1689.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $590 +$19 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $179 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $926 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $1,254 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $534 +$19 +4%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $352 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $588 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $388 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $1,262 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $361 +$26 +7%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,178 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $123 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $798 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $411 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,249 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $849 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $3,546 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $389 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $476 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $3 10m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $20 11m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 11m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $39 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $9 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $29 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $15 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 14m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $11 14m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 14m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 14m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $11 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $11 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $11 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $6 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $9 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $9 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $11 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $20 17m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $16 17m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $3 17m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $11 17m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $20 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.70 · official $112.70 (match) · 3500 history records