Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
19 0x1988…a534 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,077 (+30%) realized +$2,077 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 31L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$672
14 days+$1,539
30 days+$1,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$2,161
other 13% −$399
crypto 1% −$25
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +10.7% +0.2% 56% 56% +23.3%
≤30d 43 +13.7% +2.9% 56% 53% +16.7%
≤90d 64 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 50% +13.1%
all 64 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 50% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 50% +13.1%
10% -9.0% 44% +2.3%
15% -17.8% 41% -7.6%
20% -25.8% 36% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$52 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,077
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage46d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 +$48 +133%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $122 +$97 +79%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 −$35 -86%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $255 −$255 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $195 +$408 +210%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $132 +$82 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $393 +$434 +110%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $73 −$65 -90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $215 +$124 +58%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $132 +$15 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $81 +$27 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $622 +$279 +45%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $52 −$3 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $52 −$5 -9%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,134 +$127 +11%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $199 +$183 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $84 +$293 +348%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $179 +$47 +27%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 29 $52 −$48 -93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $52 +$37 +72%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 26 $75 +$41 +54%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $309 −$308 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $13 −$5 -37%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $175 +$219 +125%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $119 +$137 +115%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $58 +$29 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $41 −$36 -88%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $94 +$53 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $270 +$43 +16%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $100 +$38 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $42 −$6 -15%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 99¢ $219 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 54¢ $122 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes $6 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes $0 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $92 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $103 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $153 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 SELL Under 100¢ $214 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $503 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 65¢ $324 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $260 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 BUY Under 60¢ $132 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 40¢ $133 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $11 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records