Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
19 0x198a…e28f world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%35W / 54L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$3
other 19% −$1
politics 11% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +10.7% +0.1% 50% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 82 +4.3% -5.6% 39% 5% -9.4%
all 89 +4.0% -5.9% 39% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 4% -9.4%
10% -14.9% 1% -18.1%
15% -23.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -30.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses35 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage372d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $73 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $65 −$3 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $168 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $81 −$6 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $17 +$3 +19%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $36 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $70 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $39 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $36 +$3 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $21 +$4 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 18 $4 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $176 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 +11%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $21 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $14 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $21 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records