Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:49:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x198a…6762
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$116,441 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$112,596 · open −$279
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$43,041
Realized+$112,596
Unrealized−$279
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6,496
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54,932
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112,596
7 days+$112,596
14 days+$112,596
30 days+$112,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 50¢ 50¢ $12,800 $12,672 −$128 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 41¢ 40¢ $12,620 $12,592 −$28 (-0%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 37¢ 36¢ $9,000 $8,808 −$192 (-2%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 45¢ 46¢ $7,900 $7,988 +$88 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 54¢ 53¢ $1,000 $981 −$19 (-2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ $128,895 $0 −$128,895 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $130,495 −$128,895 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305,807 +$229,535 +75%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $14,007 +$11,924 +85%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $31 +$31 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$112,317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $8,030 51m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $3,667 53m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $5,502 57m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $1,014 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $12,992 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $4,478 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $3,171 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $5,196 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20,311 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41,464 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,888 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $19,753 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $23,542 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $23,537 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $34,641 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $92,050 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,344 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $659 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7,652 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5,109 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $164,354 12h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $1 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $191 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $6 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $168 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $168 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $1,807 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $17 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $8 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $11 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +39.6% +26.3% 75% 75% +13.2%
≤30d 4 +39.6% +26.3% 75% 75% +13.2%
≤90d 4 +39.6% +26.3% 75% 75% +13.2%
all 4 +39.6% +26.3% 75% 75% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.3% 75% +13.2%
10% +14.2% 75% +2.3%
15% ← realistic here +3.2% 75% -7.5%
20% -6.9% 75% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,041.04 · official $43,041.04 (match) · 51 history records