Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x198b…30b0 sports 480 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate79%377W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days−$20
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$154
other 32% +$8
crypto 18% +$59
politics 1% +$11
world 1% +$1
economics 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.8% -7.9% 78% 46% -8.2%
≤30d 79 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 44% -9.2%
≤90d 330 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 44% -11.3%
all 480 -0.1% -9.6% 79% 44% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 44% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses377 / 103
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)480 / 480
History coverage126d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 480 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $44 +$4 +10%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $39 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $71 −$22 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$1 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $39 +$5 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$7 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 +$6 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 +$6 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $39 +$4 +11%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $39 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$5 +10%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $39 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $44 +$5 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $39 +$4 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $53 +$7 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$14 -36%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $39 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $39 +$4 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $39 +$4 +10%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $44 −$3 -7%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$5 +13%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $30 +$3 +8%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $39 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $39 −$6 -15%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 −$13 -42%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $30 +$3 +8%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $39 +$4 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $39 −$10 -26%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $30 +$4 +12%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $30 −$2 -8%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $39 +$4 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $39 +$4 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 11 $39 +$6 +14%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $39 +$4 +11%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $39 +$4 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $39 +$4 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $44 +$5 +11%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 09 $38 +$6 +14%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Chile? Jun 09 $39 −$11 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $44 26h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 27h
DR Congo leading at halftime? SELL No 98¢ $42 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $57 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $51 35h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY No 91¢ $39 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $58 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 40h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 64¢ $1 41h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 64¢ $10 41h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 64¢ $2 41h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 64¢ $36 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $47 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $49 42h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $51 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $39 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $53 2d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $36 2d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $36 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $38 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $39 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 90¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1239 history records