Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
19 0x198f…c419 sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (252 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56,511 (-12%) realized −$13,318 · open −$43,193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%40W / 48L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,862per market
Trades / day252.0pace
Fees−$5,779est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,752
7 days+$21,237
14 days−$39,875
30 days−$39,875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$61,907
other 22% −$21,134
world 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (252 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +43.6% +29.9% 36% 36% -1.8%
≤30d 88 +19.9% +8.5% 45% 34% -18.7%
≤90d 88 +19.9% +8.5% 45% 34% -18.7%
all 88 +19.9% +8.5% 45% 34% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover252.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.5% 34% -18.7%
10% -1.9% 32% -26.5%
15% ← realistic here -11.4% 28% -33.6%
20% -20.1% 24% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$5,920) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,534 vs −$4,609 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$2,241
Realized−$13,318
Unrealized−$43,193
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses40 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$5,779
Open positions6
Markets (closed)88 / 93
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$4,862
Trades / day252.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 62¢ 3¢ $27,306 $1,397 −$25,909 (-95%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 44¢ 1¢ $17,600 $300 −$17,300 (-98%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 87¢ 90¢ $247 $257 +$10 (+4%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 83¢ 84¢ $174 $178 +$3 (+2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 97¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 93¢ 96¢ $39 $41 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7,840 −$7,762 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,161 +$3,439 +83%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $16,375 +$28,162 +172%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $6,617 +$33,482 +506%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $575 −$575 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,351 +$906 +27%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 18 $525 −$525 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 18 $2,237 −$2,237 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $3,052 −$3,052 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,366 −$3,366 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 18 $2,448 −$2,448 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $4,274 −$2,809 -66%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 18 $3,995 −$3,995 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 18 $4,544 −$4,544 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $7,137 −$7,066 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $5,848 −$5,848 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 18 $12,984 −$8,513 -66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $5,696 −$5,696 -100%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 18 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13,000 −$13,000 -100%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 18 $12,927 −$12,927 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 18 $14,399 −$14,399 -100%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 18 $11,471 −$11,471 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 18 $8,771 −$8,771 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14,054 +$11,398 +81%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15,724 +$11,326 +72%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $7,264 +$17,398 +240%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $1,792 +$1,708 +95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $0 +$1,554 +1398206%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $11,407 +$14,091 +124%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8,400 +$11,600 +138%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4,805 +$3,723 +78%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $4,715 +$4,635 +98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,957 −$614 -16%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5,920 +$8,880 +150%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $4,072 +$1,813 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $465 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,506 +$6 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5) Jun 08 $433 −$355 -82%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,513 −$1,513 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $685 −$385 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 08 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 08 $5,910 −$5,910 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $4,769 −$4,769 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $3,862 −$3,862 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 08 $13,394 −$13,394 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $3 14m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $20 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $19 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $1 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $1 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $1 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 0¢ $0 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,240.84 · official $2,240.84 (match) · 3500 history records