Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1990…a774 world 42 markets active 9h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$1
other 14% +$6
politics 11% $0
culture 5% −$8
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +10.1% -0.4% 44% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +10.1% -0.4% 44% 11% -9.4%
all 40 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage262d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $143 −$4 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $63 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $69 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $130 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $65 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $18 +$6 +30%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $37 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $18 $0 +3%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 07 $19 $0 +1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $56 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $72 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $41 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $22 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $69 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $69 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $61 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.24 (match) · 165 history records