Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1993…17c3 sports 444 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-3%) realized −$17 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%150W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$29
14 days−$48
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$41
other 26% −$196
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 55% -17.7%
≤30d 146 -9.0% -17.7% 40% 40% -21.3%
≤90d 438 +6.0% -4.1% 34% 34% -14.0%
all 438 +6.0% -4.1% 34% 34% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 34% -14.0%
10% -13.3% 34% -22.2%
15% -21.7% 34% -29.8%
20% -29.3% 30% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses150 / 288
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)438 / 444
History coverage70d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 14¢ $60 $13 −$47 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $48 +$31 +64%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $4 +$2 +42%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $4 +$2 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$24 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $79 +$68 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: PNG (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +76%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +70%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +70%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 +$1 +46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $2 +$1 +70%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $3 +$5 +188%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Australia vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +76%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $2 +$2 +109%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $2 +$4 +152%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +30%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$4 +129%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $64 45h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 46h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 47h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY ex-MANA eSports 83¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 71¢ $4 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 61¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 70¢ $4 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $51 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $79 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 14¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY 6¢ $103 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 1¢ $10 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal BUY 5¢ $51 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 22¢ $51 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 4¢ $31 9d
Game Handicap: PNG (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) BUY Leviatan Esports 61¢ $2 12d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S BUY Partizan Sangal 34¢ $2 12d
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage BUY FN Esports 49¢ $2 12d
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $2 12d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5) BUY paiN 58¢ $2 12d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 61¢ $2 12d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Jordan 43¢ $2 12d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 58¢ $2 13d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $2 13d
Kosovo vs. Andorra: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $2 13d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY paiN Gaming 35¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.07 · official $13.07 (match) · 890 history records