Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1997…2e36 crypto 125 markets active 4h ago coverage 109d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,115 (-3%) realized −$6,635 · open −$16,480
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%45W / 152L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,039per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$469est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$39,512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$109,367
sports 30% −$53,326
crypto 18% −$22,442
economics 9% +$608
other 6% −$5,311
politics 2% +$2,215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -69.5% -72.4% 6% 6% -67.9%
≤30d 102 -64.3% -67.7% 11% 9% -58.1%
≤90d 127 -42.6% -48.1% 20% 13% -40.9%
all 197 -42.5% -48.0% 23% 17% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.0% 17% -42.8%
10% -53.0% 15% -48.3%
15% ← realistic here -57.5% 13% -53.3%
20% -61.7% 12% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$4,781) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
24.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,891 vs −$2,944 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$39,512
Realized−$6,635
Unrealized−$16,480
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses45 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$469
Open positions21
Markets (closed)197 / 125
History coverage109d
Avg bet$6,039
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 64¢ 66¢ $8,477 $8,693 +$217 (+3%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $4,111 $4,460 +$350 (+9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $3,461 $3,909 +$448 (+13%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $2,862 $3,210 +$348 (+12%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 61¢ 67¢ $2,755 $3,024 +$269 (+10%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $2,335 $2,337 +$1 (+0%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $2,197 $2,218 +$21 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 48¢ 6¢ $19,200 $2,200 −$17,000 (-89%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $1,373 $1,770 +$397 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,706 $1,713 +$7 (+0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 36¢ 27¢ $2,237 $1,658 −$579 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 95¢ $1,570 $1,598 +$28 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $476 $732 +$257 (+54%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 85¢ $458 $486 +$28 (+6%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 57¢ 38¢ $736 $484 −$252 (-34%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $272 $289 +$16 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 65¢ 92¢ $200 $282 +$82 (+41%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 64¢ 11¢ $1,361 $243 −$1,118 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $192 $195 +$2 (+1%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Villanova Wildcats vs. Creighton Bluejays: O/U 144.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $658 −$658 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $902 −$902 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $324 −$324 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 15 $5,994 −$5,994 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $728 −$728 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Jun 15 $740 −$740 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $930 −$930 -100%
Spread: Nets (-4.5) Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Jun 15 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 15 $10,800 −$10,800 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1,091 −$1,091 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Jun 15 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $712 −$708 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1,229 -98141%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 227.5 Jun 15 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 15 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $857 −$857 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Jun 15 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1,199 −$1,199 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 Jun 15 $4,903 −$4,903 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets Jun 15 $4,965 −$4,965 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 15 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $620 −$620 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5 Jun 15 $181 −$181 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $576 −$576 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $316 −$316 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5 Jun 15 $4,680 −$4,680 -100%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Ben Shelton Jun 15 $385 −$385 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5 Jun 15 $5,192 −$5,192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2,260 −$2,260 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2,634 −$2,634 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Jun 15 $762 −$762 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Jun 15 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5 Jun 15 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $12,130 −$12,130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,132 −$1,132 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $1,974 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $4,615 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $28 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $3 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $336 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $7 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $185 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $172 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $18 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $11 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $18 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $2 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $51 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $9 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $14 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $14 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $4 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $6 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $65 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $4 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $185 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $4 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,511.60 · official $39,511.60 (match) · 3500 history records