Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x199c…5270 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 225d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,019 (+43%) realized +$1,145 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 225d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$701
sports 24% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +60.2% +44.9% 100% 100% +40.2%
≤30d 4 +60.2% +44.9% 100% 100% +40.2%
≤90d 4 +60.2% +44.9% 100% 100% +40.2%
all 5 +48.6% +34.4% 100% 80% +35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.4% 80% +35.5%
10% +21.6% 80% +22.5%
15% +9.8% 80% +10.7%
20% -0.9% 40% -0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$1,145
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage225d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 38¢ $200 $142 −$58 (-29%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $150 $83 −$67 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $372 +$239 +64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$119 +78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$147 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $997 +$498 +50%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 10 $199 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $203 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $6 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $16 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $12 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $16 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $122 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $61 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $15 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $6 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $12 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $36 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $15 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $15 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $6 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $7 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $11 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $7 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $271 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $450 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $997 37h
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $204 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.05 · official $224.05 (match) · 33 history records