Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19a4…fa7a crypto 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+3%) realized +$137 · open +$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate76%140W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$78
14 days+$90
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$255
world 24% −$48
politics 11% +$21
crypto 8% −$15
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -2.1% -11.4% 72% 28% -3.8%
≤30d 66 -4.6% -13.6% 77% 20% -5.0%
≤90d 88 -7.6% -16.4% 73% 25% -6.7%
all 185 -7.2% -16.0% 76% 21% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 21% -8.1%
10% -24.1% 11% -16.9%
15% -31.4% 8% -24.9%
20% -38.1% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$4,198
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$124
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses140 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)185 / 197
History coverage124d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 86¢ 89¢ $2,482 $2,559 +$77 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $708 $725 +$17 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $549 $600 +$51 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $94 $99 +$5 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $68 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 90¢ 79¢ $54 $48 −$7 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 72¢ 56¢ $35 $28 −$8 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 75¢ 94¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 62¢ $29 $19 −$10 (-35%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 58¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $107 +$8 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $35 +$8 +21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? Jun 29 $30 −$5 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $32 −$14 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $26 −$15 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $49 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $84 +$10 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $18 −$12 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $109 −$3 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$5 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 +$7 +47%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $49 −$15 -30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $33 +$7 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $36 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $192 +$12 +6%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $278 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $19 −$9 -48%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $200 +$9 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $147 +$8 +5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $685 +$14 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 −$12 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $55 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $18 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 8h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 11h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $21 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 21h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 28h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 28h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 34h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,198.24 · official $4,198.24 (match) · 489 history records