Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
19 0x19a4…a6ba politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$3
crypto 4% $0
other 2% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 12 -3.8% -13.0% 17% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage244d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 28 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 12h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 13h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 15h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 18h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 22h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 24h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 26h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 27h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 28h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 29h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 31h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 33h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $19 178d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 178d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 178d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 178d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $16 206d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $15 213d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 213d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? SELL No 100¢ $49 243d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $49 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.25 · official $227.25 (match) · 32 history records