Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
19 0x19a9…6a7a sports 39 markets active 9h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+6%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$5
other 34% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +15.7% +4.7% 72% 69% -2.1%
≤30d 32 +15.7% +4.7% 72% 69% -2.1%
≤90d 32 +15.7% +4.7% 72% 69% -2.1%
all 32 +15.7% +4.7% 72% 69% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 69% -2.1%
10% -5.3% 56% -11.5%
15% -14.5% 44% -20.0%
20% -22.9% 31% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 73¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots Jun 11 $1 +$1 +71%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots Jun 11 $1 $0 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $1 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Portuga BUY 45¢ $1 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND England vs. Croatia: BUY 31¢ $1 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $2 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY 12¢ $1 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $1 29h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina BUY 30¢ $1 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 40h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $1 40h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 40h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $1 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $2 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $2 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $0 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 2d
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $4.01 · 66 history records