Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

19 0x19af…a063 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day22.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+11.2%	+0.6%	70%	55%	+1.1%
≤30d	20	+11.2%	+0.6%	70%	55%	+1.1%
≤90d	20	+11.2%	+0.6%	70%	55%	+1.1%
all	20	+11.2%	+0.6%	70%	55%	+1.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.2 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+0.6%	55%	+1.1%
10% ← realistic here	-9.0%	40%	-8.6%
15%	-17.8%	35%	-17.4%
20%	-25.9%	20%	-25.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late +13% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day22.2

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$10	+39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$18	+68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$60	+228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$11	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 27	$53	−$2	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$12	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 27	$25	+$2	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$3	+66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 27	$25	+$3	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 27	$25	+$7	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 27	$50	+$7	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$1	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$8	+149%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$6	−$6	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$36	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$26	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$43	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$26	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$37	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$26	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$27	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$27	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$13	33h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	55¢	$6	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records