Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
19 0x19b1…83a0 sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23,628 (+17%) realized +$23,621 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate66%37W / 19L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$2,410per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$700est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,333
7 days+$6,556
14 days+$6,811
30 days+$20,720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$11,821
sports 48% +$11,517
economics 0% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +16.7% +5.5% 100% 75% +1.6%
≤30d 41 +16.4% +5.3% 68% 61% +8.3%
≤90d 56 +11.9% +1.2% 66% 59% +5.8%
all 56 +11.9% +1.2% 66% 59% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 59% +5.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.5% 52% -4.3%
15% -17.3% 43% -13.6%
20% -25.4% 39% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$3,450) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,112 vs −$953 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,236
Realized+$23,621
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses37 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$700
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage80d
Avg bet$2,410
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 83¢ 84¢ $1,229 $1,236 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,630 +$244 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,450 +$1,090 +32%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,275 +$871 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,690 +$961 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11,635 +$1,012 +9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,610 +$988 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7,700 +$1,050 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14,340 +$342 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12,447 +$787 +6%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $256 +$201 +79%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 09 $517 −$517 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $140 +$202 +144%
Bratislava: Lukas Pokorny vs Alex Barrena Jun 09 $342 −$342 -100%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 09 $378 +$203 +54%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $447 +$201 +45%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 08 $178 −$178 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 08 $245 −$245 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $129 −$129 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $129 −$129 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 08 $123 +$200 +163%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $581 −$581 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 07 $25 +$7 +27%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $195 +$203 +104%
Set 1 Winner: Fery vs Bu Jun 06 $215 −$215 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $294 −$294 -100%
Birmingham: Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen Jun 06 $745 +$198 +27%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $124 +$186 +150%
Birmingham: Tristan Schoolkate vs Arthur Fery Jun 04 $318 +$203 +64%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 04 $335 +$197 +59%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 02 $268 +$194 +72%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 02 $7,924 +$8,672 +109%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 01 $129 −$129 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $114 +$189 +165%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland Jun 01 $124 +$189 +152%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $8,294 +$5,366 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $6,072 +$3,928 +65%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Aidan Mayo May 30 $111 +$167 +150%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 28 $2,447 +$3,417 +140%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $7,871 −$7,780 -99%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 22 $2,195 +$1,966 +90%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 21 $4,104 −$4,071 -99%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 18 $2,122 −$2,091 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $1,077 +$1,004 +93%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-04-24? May 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 14 $945 +$993 +105%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $8,830 +$547 +6%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Ruiz (+1.5) May 10 $384 −$377 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 10 $330 −$323 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $1,235 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $1,630 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $3,450 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $651 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $94 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $7 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $4 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $18 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $60 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $2,441 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $199 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $49 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $4,393 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $49 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $8,716 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $22 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $34 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $58 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $1,380 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $106 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $178 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $1,101 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $40 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $6,610 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $4 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $15 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $21 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $15 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $147 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,236.13 · official $1,228.73 (match) · 197 history records