Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
19 0x19b4…bac6 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-16%) realized −$134 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$253
other 16% +$10
sports 3% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -44.4% -49.7% 29% 14% -40.5%
≤30d 7 -44.4% -49.7% 29% 14% -40.5%
≤90d 7 -44.4% -49.7% 29% 14% -40.5%
all 7 -44.4% -49.7% 29% 14% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 14% -40.5%
10% -54.5% 14% -46.2%
15% -58.9% 14% -51.4%
20% -63.0% 0% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$53 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $408 $372 −$36 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $459 −$216 -47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $80 +$6 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$9 -73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$6 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 +$32 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.72 · official $371.72 (match) · 18 history records