Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
19 0x19b5…c0ae sports 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,855 (+10%) realized +$15,297 · open +$3,558
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%100W / 106L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$871per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$2,909est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$14,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,924
7 days+$12,334
14 days+$11,988
30 days+$13,744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$25,460
other 0% +$842
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.0% -2.3% 55% 50% +4.8%
≤30d 29 +3.1% -6.7% 52% 48% +5.7%
≤90d 206 +15.0% +4.1% 49% 44% +3.3%
all 206 +15.0% +4.1% 49% 44% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 44% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.9% 41% -6.6%
15% -15.0% 38% -15.6%
20% -23.3% 35% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$770) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$886 vs −$622 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$14,326
Realized+$15,297
Unrealized+$3,558
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses100 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,909
Open positions2
Markets (closed)206 / 208
History coverage61d
Avg bet$871
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 73¢ 99¢ $10,585 $14,326 +$3,741 (+35%)
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $183 $0 −$183 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $6,125 +$4,740 +77%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $4,026 +$3,525 +88%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2,738 −$2,738 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $47 +$54 +113%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $8,500 −$8,491 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $980 +$1,415 +144%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $4,150 −$4,087 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $4,537 −$4,500 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $8,454 +$8,590 +102%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $3,899 +$3,181 +82%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $7,866 +$9,234 +117%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $112 −$112 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $546 +$558 +102%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,826 +$1,435 +79%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $7,340 −$1,040 -14%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4,794 −$4,791 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $8,400 −$8,400 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $880 −$880 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $9,360 +$14,640 +156%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $13 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $352 −$347 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $309 +$45 +14%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $452 +$354 +78%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 28 $1,684 +$1,724 +102%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 27 $28 −$24 -86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 27 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $47 +$63 +134%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 27 $360 −$360 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Omega Esports vs Twisted Minds PH (BO5) - MP May 27 $4 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Grou May 26 $325 +$475 +146%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner May 26 $185 +$315 +170%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 1 Winner May 26 $188 +$312 +165%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 3 Winner May 26 $52 $0 -0%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner May 26 $45 −$5 -11%
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) May 26 $281 −$20 -7%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs Nova Esports - Map 2 Winner May 26 $7 $0 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $330 −$330 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) May 26 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $1,166 −$357 -31%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 25 $9 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute - Map 2 Winner May 25 $48 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham May 25 $160 +$139 +87%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $1,333 +$664 +50%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $986 +$462 +47%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 24 $539 +$440 +82%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 24 $22 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2,931 −$2,911 -99%
Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) May 24 $4 +$1 +16%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) May 24 $555 −$555 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 24 $158 −$139 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $183 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1,081 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $14 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $6,759 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $626 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $3 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $462 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $3 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $406 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $270 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $14 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $21 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $7 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $26 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $135 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $13 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $63 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $27 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $27 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $52 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $131 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $54 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $387 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $29 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 57¢ $399 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 56¢ $4,129 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 56¢ $18 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 56¢ $1,453 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Tunisia 54¢ $95 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,326.08 · official $14,318.83 (match) · 1322 history records