Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19b5…96a8 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$211 (+13%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.8% -15.7% 19% 19% +1.7%
≤30d 27 -6.8% -15.7% 19% 19% +1.7%
≤90d 27 -6.8% -15.7% 19% 19% +1.7%
all 27 -6.8% -15.7% 19% 19% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 19% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 19% -8.0%
15% -31.1% 19% -16.9%
20% -37.9% 19% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$53 · ×4.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $216 −$174 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$322 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $86 −$80 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $108 +$75 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$60 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$121 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$60 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $40 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$60 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$500 +833%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$255 +464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $88 −$80 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $109 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $23 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $432 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $107 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $109 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $86 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $107 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $184 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $108 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $165 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 5¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 6¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 7¢ $40 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records