Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19b6…b7cd sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,912 (-14%) realized −$3,599 · open −$313
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 38L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,555
7 days−$2,359
14 days−$2,690
30 days−$3,375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$3,025
other 25% −$387
crypto 2% −$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -39.3% -45.1% 27% 27% -31.8%
≤30d 67 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 43% -22.7%
≤90d 67 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 43% -22.7%
all 67 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 43% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 43% -22.7%
10% -32.9% 43% -30.1%
15% -39.4% 40% -36.8%
20% -45.3% 31% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$319 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized−$3,599
Unrealized−$313
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions9
Markets (closed)67 / 76
History coverage22d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 58¢ 53¢ $401 $366 −$35 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 54¢ 28¢ $270 $137 −$132 (-49%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $216 $73 −$143 (-66%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $320 +$348 +109%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $913 +$784 +86%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$5 -24%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $789 −$780 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $619 +$651 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $227 −$222 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,812 −$1,800 -99%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 18 $623 −$612 -98%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 18 $872 −$853 -98%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $193 +$332 +172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $126 −$124 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $305 −$301 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,369 +$1,242 +91%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $386 −$385 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $330 −$322 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $216 +$207 +96%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $245 −$242 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $401 +$495 +124%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $835 −$826 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $304 +$99 +32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $502 +$450 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $466 −$466 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $521 +$414 +79%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $195 +$86 +44%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $930 +$553 +60%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $420 +$279 +67%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,040 −$1,028 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $248 −$247 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1,318 +$538 +41%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,555 −$1,555 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $52 −$52 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $940 −$940 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $155 −$155 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $211 +$162 +77%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $395 +$144 +36%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $123 −$123 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $358 +$499 +139%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $35 +$11 +32%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $487 +$239 +49%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $409 +$500 +122%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $150 −$148 -99%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $93 +$39 +42%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $27 −$27 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $232 +$101 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 SELL Over 45¢ $496 1h
Türkiye leading at halftime? SELL Yes 35¢ $874 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $1,468 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $524 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,546 1h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $935 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,696 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $668 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $0 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $66 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $237 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $43 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $507 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $31 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $913 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $289 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $227 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1,059 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $753 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $619 28h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $623 28h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 37h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $73 37h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $240 37h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $559 37h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 2d
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.55 · official $595.23 (match) · 284 history records