Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19b7…9ee6 sports 801 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$4,934 (-10%) realized −$4,215 · open −$397
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%460W / 481L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day198.5pace
Fees−$627est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,515
7 days−$8,124
14 days−$5,078
30 days−$4,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,670
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 -31.2% -37.8% 29% 27% -47.6%
≤30d 941 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 43% -17.1%
≤90d 941 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 43% -17.1%
all 941 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 43% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 43% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 38% -25.1%
15% -30.4% 31% -32.3%
20% -37.2% 24% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$41 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$3,598
Realized−$4,215
Unrealized−$397
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses460 / 481
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$627
Open positions10
Markets (closed)941 / 801
History coverage15d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day198.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 941 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Under 48¢ 100¢ $403 $833 +$429 (+106%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Tampa Bay Rays 48¢ 100¢ $142 $296 +$153 (+108%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 61¢ 66¢ $259 $279 +$20 (+8%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 39¢ 64¢ $161 $262 +$102 (+63%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Texas Rangers 48¢ 34¢ $234 $164 −$69 (-30%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 45¢ 74¢ $99 $161 +$62 (+63%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Texas Rangers 48¢ 68¢ $108 $154 +$46 (+43%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Boston Red Sox 56¢ 80¢ $103 $146 +$43 (+42%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 32¢ 48¢ $82 $121 +$40 (+49%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Under 52¢ 100¢ $57 $110 +$53 (+93%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 62¢ 74¢ $79 $93 +$15 (+19%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 65¢ 94¢ $56 $80 +$24 (+43%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Texas Rangers 56¢ 84¢ $50 $75 +$24 (+49%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 34¢ 16¢ $150 $73 −$76 (-51%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Over 59¢ 26¢ $167 $73 −$94 (-56%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 36¢ 26¢ $70 $51 −$19 (-27%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Texas Rangers 39¢ 20¢ $95 $51 −$45 (-47%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Over 58¢ 36¢ $81 $50 −$31 (-38%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 62¢ 52¢ $48 $41 −$8 (-16%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $22 $38 +$16 (+69%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 25¢ 6¢ $120 $31 −$89 (-74%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+68%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Toronto Blue Jays 85¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Under 76¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) New York Yankees 96¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $22 −$28 -130%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $1 +$3 +233%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 15 $3 +$4 +138%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +186%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 Jun 15 $1 +$95 +7974%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $20 −$21 -106%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 15 $93 −$103 -110%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 15 $1 +$32 +3785%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $1 +$5 +581%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 15 $1 +$12 +929%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $2 $0 +29%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 15 $66 −$72 -109%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -106%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 15 $0 +$1 +191%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -70%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -52%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 15 $0 −$1 -353%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -26%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $0 −$1 -179%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $128 −$130 -101%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $728 −$729 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $0 $0 +47%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $0 $0 -93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $1 −$2 -281%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $6 35m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $20 35m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 76¢ $54 35m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 34¢ $10 35m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 44¢ $9 36m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $20 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 63¢ $6 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 63¢ $8 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 36m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $20 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $4 36m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 39¢ $10 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 34¢ $2 36m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 48¢ $7 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 60¢ $24 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) SELL Texas Rangers 42¢ $12 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 SELL Over 40¢ $1 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 49¢ $16 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 66¢ $8 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 51¢ $9 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 34¢ $14 37m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $12 55m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 57¢ $9 55m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $25 55m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 43¢ $11 55m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $14 55m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 57¢ $11 55m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,598.05 · official $3,577.18 (match) · 3500 history records