Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x19bc…eae5
weather · 917 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$912 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$895 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$895
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses177 / 731
Open positions9
Markets (closed)908 / 917
History coverage27d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 908 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$123
14 days−$916
30 days−$895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? No 24¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? No 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? No 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? No 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? No 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11? No 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 11? No 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? No 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +278%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$9 +454%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +380%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$6 +282%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +523%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$18 +353%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$16 +314%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$15 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$12 +283%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$912
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 20¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 24¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY No 25¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 16¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 25¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 21¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 15¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 25¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 25¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 25¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 24¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 23¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 21¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 25¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 23¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 20¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 25¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY No 23¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 23¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 22% -19.4%
≤30d 908 -15.1% -23.2% 19% 19% -28.2%
≤90d 908 -15.1% -23.2% 19% 19% -28.2%
all 908 -15.1% -23.2% 19% 19% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 19% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 19% -35.1%
15% -37.3% 19% -41.4%
20% -43.4% 19% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 2077 history records