Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x19bd…ae36
sports · 811 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$1,662 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,659 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$78
Realized+$1,659
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses391 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$803
Open positions8
Markets (closed)803 / 811
History coverage72d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 8 History 803 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$85
14 days−$2,662
30 days+$1,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 37¢ 44¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 61¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Toby Samuel 61¢ 84¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Darja Vidmanova 59¢ 80¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Amanda Anisimova 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Camilla Gennaro 71¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Andreea Prisacariu 83¢ 42¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Pia Lovric Eva Bennemann 77¢ 18¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Cilic 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs OG 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? No 83¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Golden State Valkyries 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Under 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Maks Kasnikowski 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffs Gentle Mates 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 2007 vs Hashiras (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In Group D Hashiras 52¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Glitchtech Esports vs Aurora Young Blood (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Glitchtech Esports 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $10 +$4 +44%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $30 +$31 +101%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $61 −$60 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $51 −$26 -52%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $81 +$15 +18%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $51 +$33 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $41 −$30 -74%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $20 +$10 +50%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $154 −$121 -78%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 01 $117 +$9 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $72 −$28 -39%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $44 −$33 -75%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $203 +$12 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $123 −$50 -41%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $36 +$18 +51%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $62 −$60 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 31 $46 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E May 31 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group S May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $20 −$1 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $150 −$138 -92%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $218 −$214 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $359 −$350 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $165 −$160 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $6,290 −$1,100 -18%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $101 +$77 +76%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 29 $1,015 −$50 -5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $20 +$17 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $101 +$24 +24%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Selekhmeteva/Zakharova vs Bucsa/Melichar May 29 $101 +$31 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$1,064
other 3% +$670
crypto 0% −$77
finance 0% +$6
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro BUY Camilla Gennaro 71¢ $5 13m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 59¢ $5 18m
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro BUY Andreea Prisacariu 83¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 76¢ $5 1h
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Pia Lovric BUY Eva Bennemann 77¢ $5 2h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $5 4h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 49¢ $5 4h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 59¢ $5 4h
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Darja Vidmanova 59¢ $5 4h
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren BUY Toby Samuel 61¢ $5 4h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Zhizhen Zhang 44¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $5 6h
Set Handicap: Cilic (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) BUY Cilic 9¢ $5 6h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 80¢ $5 14h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 12¢ $31 5d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY John Yannis 5¢ $41 5d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Cleveland Guardians 48¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 0¢ $10 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 10¢ $10 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 3¢ $10 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 3¢ $10 5d
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen BUY CCG Esports 49¢ $30 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Baltimore Orioles 10¢ $10 8d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Baltimore Orioles 29¢ $51 8d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 13¢ $31 8d
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski BUY Maks Kasnikowski 37¢ $10 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Detroit Tigers 91¢ $53 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 95¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -44.5% -49.8% 36% 36% -53.5%
≤30d 388 -15.7% -23.8% 40% 34% -6.0%
≤90d 803 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 45% -6.0%
all 803 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 45% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 45% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 42% -15.0%
15% -29.4% 36% -23.2%
20% -36.4% 29% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.77 · official $77.77 (match) · 2206 history records