Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
19 0x19c0…bd71 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate38%30W / 50L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$29
14 days+$24
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$60
other 36% −$3
sports 19% +$17
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.0% -6.8% 75% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 29 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 41 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 5% -9.2%
all 80 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -9.1%
10% -18.3% 4% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses30 / 50
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage476d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $205 $211 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $224 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $363 +$2 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $219 +$4 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $389 +$9 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $181 +$12 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $180 −$1 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $235 −$3 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $56 −$7 -13%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $224 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $240 +$3 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $384 +$6 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $414 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $16 −$5 -32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $153 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $206 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $117 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $117 +$23 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $65 +$14 +22%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $156 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $64 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $67 −$3 -5%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $78 −$3 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $1,064 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $1,120 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $3,275 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,120 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $344 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $384 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 01 $3 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $9 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 07 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 24 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $115 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $90 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $224 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $224 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $66 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $66 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $165 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $197 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $203 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $206 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $219 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $143 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $57 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $109 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $83 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $170 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $139 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.90 · official $210.90 (match) · 335 history records