Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x19c5…511d
crypto · 795 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$70 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$331 · open −$219
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$450
Realized+$331
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses187 / 584
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)771 / 795
History coverage147d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 24 History 771 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$272
7 days+$180
14 days+$1,154
30 days+$1,052
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $84 $95 +$10 (+12%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $52 $25 −$27 (-52%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? No 4¢ 3¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? No 1¢ 2¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? No 11¢ 8¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? No 4¢ 2¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-56%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? No 1¢ 1¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? No 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? No 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? No 3¢ 1¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-64%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? No 3¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? No 2¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? No 10¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? No 11¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? No 6¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? No 3¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? No 4¢ 0¢ $75 $1 −$74 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? No 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $11 −$6 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 12 $62 +$38 +61%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 12 $52 +$41 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $21 −$18 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $27 −$21 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $32 −$27 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $53 −$49 -91%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $51 −$21 -41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $69 −$36 -52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $51 −$18 -36%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 12 $72 +$67 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +165%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$33 -66%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $22 −$11 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $53 −$48 -91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $161 +$46 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$8 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $61 −$58 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $100 −$96 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 09 $156 −$15 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 −$44 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $80 +$101 +126%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 08 $62 −$22 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $80 +$71 +88%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $98 −$46 -47%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $144 −$49 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $50 +$199 +397%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $27 +$307 +1149%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$102 +383%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 04 $28 +$315 +1135%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $11 +$182 +1708%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 03 $32 +$300 +939%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 3? Jun 03 $36 +$49 +136%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $56 +$55 +98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 01 $26 −$3 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $32 −$18 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 30 $5 +$16 +300%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 30 $9 +$5 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 30 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 30 $21 −$19 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% +$499
world 16% +$286
finance 14% −$72
tech 6% −$321
other 5% −$162
economics 1% +$19
sports 1% −$163
culture 1% +$22
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY No 11¢ $27 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? BUY No 2¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY No 3¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 10¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY No 2¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $11 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $49 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $3 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? SELL No 0¢ $1 6h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $40 6h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $42 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? SELL No 1¢ $3 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? SELL No 1¢ $6 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +14.6% +3.7% 25% 25% -0.7%
≤30d 103 +33.4% +20.7% 27% 25% +14.7%
≤90d 427 -11.0% -19.5% 23% 20% -8.2%
all 771 +11.9% +1.3% 24% 21% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 21% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 19% -17.0%
15% -17.3% 17% -25.0%
20% -25.4% 15% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.15 · official $452.87 (match) · 3500 history records