Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
19 0x19cc…7ce5 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$17
politics 28% −$12
sports 9% +$71
crypto 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 122 +1.5% -8.1% 13% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 7% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 7% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage132d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $269 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $248 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,393 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $256 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $491 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $464 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 16 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $316 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $309 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $302 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $272 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,160 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $325 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $489 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $336 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $315 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 4h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 14h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $26 14h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $26 20h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 20h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 22d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $248 30d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $248 30d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $244 31d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $244 31d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $195 31d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $195 32d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.99 (match) · 366 history records