Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
19 0x19cc…1215 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$14 (+16%) realized +$16 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1
other 50% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.1% +7.8% 67% 50% +14.4%
≤30d 6 +19.1% +7.8% 67% 50% +14.4%
≤90d 6 +19.1% +7.8% 67% 50% +14.4%
all 6 +19.1% +7.8% 67% 50% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 50% +14.4%
10% -2.6% 33% +3.5%
15% -12.0% 33% -6.5%
20% -20.6% 33% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 64¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$15 +139%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.72 · official $20.72 (match) · 13 history records