Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
19 0x19cc…c4fd world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$494 (+4%) realized −$1,108 · open +$1,602
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,033per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6,745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1,209
politics 33% +$643
sports 8% −$1,079
finance 7% +$132
other 2% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +315.5% +275.9% 50% 50% -4.4%
≤30d 2 +315.5% +275.9% 50% 50% -4.4%
≤90d 9 +58.0% +42.9% 67% 44% -16.6%
all 9 +58.0% +42.9% 67% 44% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.9% 44% -16.6%
10% +29.2% 33% -24.5%
15% +16.7% 22% -31.8%
20% +5.3% 11% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$403 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$6,745
Realized−$1,108
Unrealized+$1,602
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1,033
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $3,747 $4,381 +$634 (+17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 44¢ 96¢ $600 $1,302 +$702 (+117%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 49¢ 68¢ $665 $922 +$257 (+39%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $131 $140 +$9 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $25 +$160 +638%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $1,205 −$90 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $1,079 −$1,079 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 05 $551 +$188 +34%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Apr 04 $49 +$2 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3,517 +$32 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,000 +$132 +13%
Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $250 +$95 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $252 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $185 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $600 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes $30 40h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $325 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $25 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes $125 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes $40 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes $20 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,085 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $150 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $200 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $150 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $400 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the SELL Yes 66¢ $395 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the SELL Yes 68¢ $181 2d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No $10 59d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 48¢ $676 70d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 48¢ $169 70d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 48¢ $38 71d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 48¢ $18 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,745.30 · official $6,745.32 (match) · 50 history records