Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x19cf…fea0 crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$287 (+27%) realized +$281 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%49W / 38L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day124.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$266
other 2% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +21.6% +10.1% 56% 56% +15.4%
≤30d 87 +21.6% +10.1% 56% 56% +15.4%
≤90d 87 +21.6% +10.1% 56% 56% +15.4%
all 87 +21.6% +10.1% 56% 56% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 56% +15.4%
10% ← realistic here -0.5% 53% +4.3%
15% -10.1% 52% -5.8%
20% -18.9% 49% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses49 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day124.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 5¢ 36¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+630%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$30 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $64 +$46 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$4 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$15 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$26 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.30 · official $9.10 · 210 history records