Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19d0…d038 sports 281 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$531 (-4%) realized −$495 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%122W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$789
14 days−$789
30 days−$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$717
other 18% +$100
world 3% −$40
crypto 1% −$13
politics 1% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -15.6% -23.7% 29% 26% -26.0%
≤30d 168 -6.8% -15.7% 44% 37% -14.8%
≤90d 245 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 38% -13.8%
all 276 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 37% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 37% -14.8%
10% -19.4% 29% -22.9%
15% -27.2% 24% -30.4%
20% -34.4% 19% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$23 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$495
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses122 / 154
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions5
Markets (closed)276 / 281
History coverage148d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $84 $80 −$4 (-4%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 38¢ $53 $41 −$12 (-22%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Pakistan $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $74 −$15 -21%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $24 −$16 -65%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $92 −$5 -5%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $38 +$8 +21%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$16 +136%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 +$59 +134%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $91 −$7 -7%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -8%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $3 −$2 -56%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -15%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 −$16 -65%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 +$36 +245%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 +$10 +71%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 +$16 +109%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $115 +$9 +8%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +43%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$21 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$9 -36%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $62 +$25 +40%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 +$32 +58%
Will England win? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 20 $49 +$3 +6%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $31 +$1 +4%
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals - Who w Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 20 $113 +$14 +12%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $44 +$5 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 20 $30 −$21 -68%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 20 $56 −$3 -5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 20 $46 +$32 +69%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 20 $49 +$9 +19%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 20 $53 −$25 -46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $53 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 27m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere $7 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan $0 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan $0 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 59¢ $58 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $74 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $2 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 16¢ $8 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $22 3h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 7h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 11¢ $10 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $14 11h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 12h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No $10 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $44 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $85 23h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $43 23h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 23h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.00 · official $122.00 (match) · 1624 history records