Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x19d0…d20b sports 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+16%) realized +$143 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%74W / 79L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$64
14 days+$61
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$181
other 4% +$12
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +41.4% +27.9% 61% 61% +39.9%
≤30d 28 +28.4% +16.1% 57% 57% +24.4%
≤90d 153 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 44% +5.1%
all 153 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 44% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 44% +5.1%
10% -23.5% 43% -4.9%
15% -30.9% 35% -14.1%
20% -37.7% 29% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses74 / 79
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)153 / 159
History coverage79d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners Over 38¢ 100¢ $15 $39 +$24 (+163%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 75¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 62¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$21 +596%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 +$4 +146%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 +$4 +146%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 0.5 May 29 $5 +$1 +28%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 28 $3 +$3 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 May 12 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 12 $7 +$5 +73%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $3 −$2 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 3.5 May 04 $5 +$11 +216%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 02 $24 +$9 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $10 +$3 +33%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 02 $8 −$8 -98%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 May 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Stars vs. Wild May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $2 −$1 -63%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 38¢ $15 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 49¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 4h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 16h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $5 16h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 16h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $3 16h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 68¢ $10 17h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 17h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 39¢ $5 18h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 18h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $3 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 18h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 45¢ $5 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 66¢ $5 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 45h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 47¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.21 · official $59.21 (match) · 347 history records