Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
19 0x19da…53fc sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$12,087 (+24%) realized +$9,979 · open +$2,108
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,130per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$20,888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,737
7 days+$3,456
14 days+$4,084
30 days+$9,633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$4,088
sports 48% +$7,479
crypto 1% +$323
world 0% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +92.1% +73.8% 71% 71% +51.9%
≤30d 33 +49.8% +35.5% 58% 58% +19.2%
≤90d 33 +49.8% +35.5% 58% 58% +19.2%
all 33 +49.8% +35.5% 58% 58% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.5% 58% +19.2%
10% +22.5% 58% +7.8%
15% +10.7% 55% -2.7%
20% -0.2% 52% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +92% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$903 vs −$537 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$20,888
Realized+$9,979
Unrealized+$2,108
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions11
Markets (closed)33 / 44
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,130
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $13,000 $13,446 +$446 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $2,875 +$1,875 (+188%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,486 −$14 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,500 $1,298 −$202 (-13%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $550 $542 −$8 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $400 $404 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 33¢ 32¢ $280 $276 −$4 (-2%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 20¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Paraguay 13¢ 13¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$168 +33%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $285 +$414 +145%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $255 −$250 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $557 +$425 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$151 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $153 +$222 +145%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,265 +$782 +62%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$655 +638%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$72 +414%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $153 +$78 +51%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$298 +291%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $61 +$55 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $253 +$210 +83%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $359 −$350 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$30 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $510 +$403 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $205 −$195 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $510 +$1,019 +200%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $184 +$646 +350%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 +$323 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,040 −$678 -33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $4,992 −$4,939 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $14,962 +$10,488 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10,244 25m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 86¢ $506 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $699 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 9h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 20¢ $205 9h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $255 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $406 24h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 40¢ $285 24h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $286 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 31h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $375 31h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $557 32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 32h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 32h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $154 47h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $153 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,047 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $357 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $353 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $149 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $231 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,887.94 · official $20,883.77 (match) · 90 history records