Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19da…b242 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-7%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate80%28W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +14.9% +3.9% 80% 71% -10.7%
≤30d 35 +14.9% +3.9% 80% 71% -10.7%
≤90d 35 +14.9% +3.9% 80% 71% -10.7%
all 35 +14.9% +3.9% 80% 71% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 71% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 63% -19.2%
15% -15.1% 34% -27.0%
20% -23.4% 23% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses28 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.12 · official $23.57 · 100 history records