Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x19dd…ac17 crypto 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%247W / 9L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$55
other 18% −$7
economics 9% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 50 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 256 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.56 per $1 lost it wins $4.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses247 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage250d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $192 $192 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 26? Jun 26 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 23? Jun 23 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 23? Jun 23 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 18? Jun 18 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 18? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? Jun 15 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 10? Jun 10 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 7? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 6? Jun 07 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $187 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $175 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $175 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? May 24 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 19? May 19 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 17? May 17 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 15 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? May 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 10? May 10 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 8? May 08 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 29? May 02 $185 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $185 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 14 $184 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 5? Apr 05 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 04 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? Apr 01 $182 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 30? Mar 31 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $182 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $192 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $191 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $80 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 8d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $138 9d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $52 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $190 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $188 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $83 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $8 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $179 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $65 20d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $123 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $187 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $187 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $175 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $175 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $175 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $175 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $170 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $174 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $174 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $174 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $174 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $54 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $174 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $17 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.70 · official $191.70 (match) · 572 history records