Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x19dd…1f94 politics 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,052 (-1%) realized −$1,054 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$809per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$68
other 38% −$214
sports 6% −$770
economics 3% −$4
world 2% −$7
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -1.9% -11.3% 4% 0% -10.5%
all 140 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 10% -10.4%
10% -20.3% 9% -19.0%
15% -28.0% 6% -26.8%
20% -35.0% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,353) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1,011
Realized−$1,054
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage164d
Avg bet$809
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $754 $756 +$2 (+0%)
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $255 $255 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,922 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,396 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,903 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,082 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $5,294 −$6 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $395 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $618 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,667 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $976 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $2,816 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,260 −$2 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,864 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $2,690 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,281 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,961 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,473 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $3,718 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,364 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 51m
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $366 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $367 3h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $440 5h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $441 6h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $494 25h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $494 27h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $425 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $425 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $396 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $396 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $343 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $344 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $829 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $830 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $754 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,125 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,146 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,147 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,277 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,394 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,396 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,256 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,258 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,410 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,413 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $987 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $989 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011.47 · official $1,011.47 (match) · 472 history records