Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19df…5fb4 politics 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% $0
other 28% −$1
world 22% −$2
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.1%
all 48 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage300d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $3 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Sep 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $17 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $18 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $35 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $36 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $30 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $6 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $32 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records