Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19e5…dd71 other 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$285 (-1%) realized −$224 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate60%114W / 75L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$74
14 days+$155
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$438
world 29% −$146
sports 15% +$273
weather 11% +$24
politics 4% −$84
tech 2% −$21
economics 1% −$20
crypto 1% −$11
culture 0% −$7
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -6.9% -15.8% 66% 25% -8.8%
≤30d 159 -4.5% -13.6% 66% 28% -10.1%
≤90d 189 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 24% -11.0%
all 189 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 24% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 24% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 11% -19.5%
15% -29.3% 6% -27.3%
20% -36.3% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$2,758
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses114 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions38
Markets (closed)189 / 227
History coverage54d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $454 $505 +$51 (+11%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $450 $453 +$3 (+1%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? No 93¢ 99¢ $360 $382 +$22 (+6%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 47¢ 30¢ $306 $192 −$114 (-37%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 74¢ 74¢ $169 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 91¢ 92¢ $159 $160 +$2 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $127 $128 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $97 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 77¢ 66¢ $92 $78 −$13 (-15%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $68 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 78¢ 90¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 46¢ 94¢ $11 $23 +$12 (+104%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 34¢ 32¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 68¢ 69¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 79¢ 77¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 66¢ 50¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-31%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 94¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $682 +$21 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $120 −$9 -8%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +7%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $86 −$3 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $301 +$25 +8%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $98 −$52 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $107 +$4 +4%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $82 +$7 +8%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $210 +$20 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $74 −$27 -37%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $241 +$20 +8%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $75 +$11 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$2 +5%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 18 $105 +$4 +3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $86 +$3 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +34%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 −$6 -71%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $33 +$2 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $281 +$20 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $104 −$94 -90%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $86 −$15 -17%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $28 +$24 +88%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$71 +139%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $551 −$55 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$2 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $93 +$28 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $396 +$30 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $247 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $193 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $51 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $15 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 2h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 2h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 2h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $24 2h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 2h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $18 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $31 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $26 3h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $295 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $107 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $17 4h
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,758.32 · official $2,758.02 (match) · 1822 history records