Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x19e7…09af
crypto · 621 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$367 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$334 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$433
Realized−$334
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses289 / 319
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)608 / 621
History coverage25d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 13 History 608 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$53
14 days−$203
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $115 $120 +$5 (+5%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+4%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $120 $74 −$46 (-39%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 56¢ 80¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 37¢ 34¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 65¢ 54¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 73¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 64¢ 69¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? No 82¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 85¢ 83¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 80¢ 77¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$347
politics 13% +$1
other 6% −$21
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$21
sports 1% +$17
weather 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 43% -23.8%
≤30d 608 -21.0% -28.5% 48% 46% -24.4%
≤90d 608 -21.0% -28.5% 48% 46% -24.4%
all 608 -21.0% -28.5% 48% 46% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 46% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 44% -31.6%
15% -41.6% 27% -38.2%
20% -47.3% 14% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.51 · official $432.51 (match) · 1142 history records