Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x19e9…aae5 world 13 markets active 3h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,242 (-45%) realized −$971 · open −$271
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$422
sports 23% −$628
politics 11% −$305
finance 11% +$85
other 7% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.1% -30.4% 50% 50% -30.4%
≤30d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 67% 67% -16.1%
≤90d 7 -61.2% -64.9% 29% 29% -61.1%
all 7 -61.2% -64.9% 29% 29% -61.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.9% 29% -61.1%
10% -68.3% 14% -64.8%
15% -71.3% 0% -68.2%
20% -74.1% 0% -71.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$270 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$971
Unrealized−$271
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage72d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $300 $213 −$87 (-29%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $300 $119 −$181 (-60%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+45%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 23 $299 −$223 -74%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 23 $300 +$85 +28%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $376 +$67 +18%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? Apr 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $328 −$328 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.02 · official $365.02 (match) · 90 history records