Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19ee…446c other 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,337 (-17%) realized −$3,337 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%53W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days−$162
14 days−$287
30 days−$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$1,766
sports 35% +$65
finance 16% −$536
world 8% −$159
politics 3% −$582
crypto 3% −$8
economics 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -14.2% -22.3% 40% 40% -19.5%
≤30d 20 -47.3% -52.3% 25% 25% -31.0%
≤90d 179 -30.5% -37.1% 25% 23% -24.4%
all 196 -26.8% -33.8% 27% 26% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 26% -24.0%
10% -40.1% 24% -31.3%
15% -45.9% 23% -37.9%
20% -51.2% 22% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$60 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,337
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses53 / 143
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions0
Markets (closed)196 / 196
History coverage114d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 196 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win Jun 18 $6 +$12 +197%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $350 +$123 +35%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $213 +$199 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $242 −$240 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $21 −$14 -68%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $151 −$147 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $145 −$143 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $199 +$201 +101%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $126 −$123 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 05 $103 −$100 -97%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 30 $162 −$160 -98%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 24 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 24 $196 +$187 +96%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 24 $182 −$179 -98%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $349 −$181 -52%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $58 −$56 -97%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $109 −$106 -97%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 12 $64 −$63 -99%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 May 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $76 −$74 -97%
Will Matt McCarty win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 08 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 08 $49 −$47 -98%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 08 $69 −$67 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 42¢ $99 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $213 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $242 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $241 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $251 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win BUY 33¢ $6 8h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $7 8h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 15¢ $151 28h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $21 39h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $31 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $145 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $400 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $199 3d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Besiktas 26¢ $126 3d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by BUY Yes 12¢ $26 13d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo BUY Yes 9¢ $103 13d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $162 19d
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 25d
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 9¢ $17 25d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? SELL Yes 91¢ $207 25d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 65¢ $150 25d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 25d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? SELL Yes 58¢ $175 25d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 41¢ $27 26d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 26d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 27d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 35¢ $129 27d
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 27d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 27d
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 533 history records