Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19f0…6541 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-5%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$30
other 25% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 45% -16.1%
≤30d 20 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 45% -16.1%
≤90d 20 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 45% -16.1%
all 20 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 45% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 45% -16.1%
10% -27.8% 40% -24.1%
15% -34.7% 35% -31.5%
20% -41.1% 25% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 59¢ 57¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $16 +$16 +100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$11 +219%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $12 −$5 -39%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $42 +$18 +41%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $35 +$7 +20%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $21 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $9 +$8 +82%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 −$11 -56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$4 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $33 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $33 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $16 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 23h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 37¢ $7 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $12 41h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $61 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $60 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $42 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 81¢ $43 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $20 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $20 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $21 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $15 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $16 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 5d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 5d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.97 · official $31.98 (match) · 44 history records