Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x19f1…f301 sports 734 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$494 (+2%) realized +$494 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%323W / 411L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$95
14 days−$4
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$706
other 9% −$222
politics 1% −$7
economics 1% −$1
weather 0% −$17
crypto 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -14.7% -22.9% 35% 30% -19.9%
≤30d 132 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 39% -4.1%
≤90d 280 -11.6% -20.0% 41% 37% -5.8%
all 734 -3.2% -12.4% 44% 39% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 39% -8.0%
10% -20.8% 31% -16.8%
15% -28.5% 22% -24.8%
20% -35.5% 13% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses323 / 411
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)734 / 734
History coverage592d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 734 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $40 +$21 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 +$1 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$3 -23%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $40 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 +$5 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $30 −$13 -42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1116%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 54m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $10 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 77¢ $13 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 83¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 6¢ $1 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 13¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 13¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 30¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 39¢ $5 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 12¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $1 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 92¢ $17 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 51¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 51¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 60¢ $10 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 1¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 5¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 15¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 56¢ $8 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2185 history records