Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19f3…4a8d other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$335 (-49%) realized −$337 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +112% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +84% what you keep after slip
Net edge+84%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$308
crypto 2% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+92.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +112.3% +92.1% 80% 70% -37.6%
≤30d 10 +112.3% +92.1% 80% 70% -37.6%
≤90d 10 +112.3% +92.1% 80% 70% -37.6%
all 10 +112.3% +92.1% 80% 70% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +92.1% 70% -37.6%
10% +73.7% 60% -43.6%
15% +56.9% 60% -49.0%
20% +41.5% 40% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +112% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$201 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$337
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $136 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$105 +987%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $411 −$399 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $116 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $136 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $411 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.20 · official $11.80 (match) · 20 history records