Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19f3…540c politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$6
other 17% −$4
sports 9% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 35 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 35 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage86d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $236 −$2 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $57 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $122 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $122 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $124 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $122 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $124 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $125 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $54 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $54 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $54 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $54 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $54 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $56 8d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $56 8d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $56 9d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 9d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $56 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $57 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $57 16d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 16d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $57 17d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $57 17d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $57 20d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $57 20d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $57 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $57 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 30d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $58 30d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $58 31d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 31d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 33d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.58 · official $53.58 (match) · 195 history records