Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1a01…1dd2 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$208 (+2%) realized +$206 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%44W / 2L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$19
other 28% +$52
world 18% −$27
economics 7% +$6
tech 5% +$5
politics 4% +$132
sports 2% +$18
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.1%
all 46 +3.9% -6.0% 96% 7% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 7% -7.2%
10% -15.0% 7% -16.1%
15% -23.2% 7% -24.2%
20% -30.7% 7% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized+$206
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses44 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage618d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $201 $203 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 15 $172 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 15 $211 +$2 +1%
Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31? May 22 $211 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 14 $170 +$4 +3%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 14 $210 +$3 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $199 +$7 +4%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 09 $360 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 2? Mar 22 $170 +$1 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 24-March 2? Mar 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $166 +$3 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? Mar 02 $190 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 09 $350 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 22 $170 +$1 +1%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? Jan 22 $180 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $351 +$2 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8? Dec 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 24 $333 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the w Dec 09 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 09 $241 +$4 +2%
Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on November 4? Nov 19 $265 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Nov 04 $221 +$7 +3%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15? Oct 05 $99 +$1 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Oct 05 $231 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 8? Sep 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on August 7 at 5PM ET? Sep 12 $210 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 07 $61 +$1 +1%
Ethereum above $2,600 on July 16? Aug 07 $260 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 15 $145 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 15 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? Jun 23 $140 +$3 +2%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jun 10 $9 +$11 +117%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? Jun 10 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the Giants draft Will Johnson? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 15 $120 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.30 on April 4? May 15 $133 $0 +0%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Apr 04 $286 +$1 +0%
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? Mar 14 $272 $0 +0%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Feb 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 20 $120 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $147 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 08 $300 $0 -0%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Dec 08 $50 +$29 +59%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 14 $205 +$130 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 99¢ $140 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $130 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $201 11d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $180 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $211 35d
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $172 43d
Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $211 43d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $210 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $170 78d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $199 78d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $360 96d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 24-March 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 2? BUY No 99¢ $170 116d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $166 137d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? BUY Yes 99¢ $190 137d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $350 155d
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? BUY No 99¢ $180 172d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $170 172d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $351 184d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $333 199d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 199d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $241 219d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $90 219d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on November 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $265 234d
Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 100¢ $60 234d
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? BUY No 97¢ $221 264d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 99¢ $102 264d
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 287d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $231 287d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 8? BUY No 100¢ $120 323d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.47 · official $394.61 (match) · 99 history records