Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a01…1a3c sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,217 (+30%) realized +$1,708 · open −$491
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day105.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,058now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$89
other 6% +$552
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +58.7% +43.6% 61% 52% +42.2%
≤30d 23 +58.7% +43.6% 61% 52% +42.2%
≤90d 23 +58.7% +43.6% 61% 52% +42.2%
all 23 +58.7% +43.6% 61% 52% +42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.6% 52% +42.2%
10% ← realistic here +29.8% 48% +28.6%
15% +17.3% 35% +16.1%
20% +5.8% 30% +4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +94% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$70 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,058
Realized+$1,708
Unrealized−$491
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions28
Markets (closed)23 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day105.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 64¢ 100¢ $234 $369 +$134 (+57%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 100¢ $148 $214 +$66 (+44%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 100¢ $120 $190 +$70 (+59%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 18¢ 100¢ $30 $166 +$136 (+455%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 100¢ $30 $115 +$85 (+284%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $120 $112 −$7 (-6%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $58 $110 +$51 (+89%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 35¢ 34¢ $90 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? No 80¢ 100¢ $60 $75 +$15 (+25%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $52 $72 +$20 (+39%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Mayar Sherif 42¢ 100¢ $30 $71 +$41 (+138%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 46¢ 100¢ $30 $65 +$35 (+117%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 94¢ $30 $59 +$29 (+97%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ 68¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 56¢ 54¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polmans Marc Polmans 72¢ 100¢ $26 $35 +$10 (+39%)
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 48¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 47¢ 40¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Cabo Verde 83¢ 84¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-45%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under $30 $1 −$28 (-95%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia $60 $0 −$59 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $114 +$99 +87%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $323 +$729 +226%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $111 +$86 +77%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $212 +$21 +10%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$8 +37%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $151 −$27 -18%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $121 +$42 +35%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $30 +$7 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 21 $30 +$8 +27%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$11 +22%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $30 +$43 +140%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $272 −$272 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$53 +172%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 +$3 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$145 +474%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $61 +$510 +830%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 42¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 65¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $23 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 17¢ $29 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $31 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 35¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 33¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 80¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 65¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 45¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $29 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $30 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $27 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 62¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 62¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 63¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $22 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 63¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 64¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,057.56 · official $2,057.58 (match) · 161 history records