Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a01…024a other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$828 (+41%) realized +$948 · open −$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +111% what you keep after slip
Net edge+111%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$234
14 days+$886
30 days+$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$776
crypto 7% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+110.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -33.8% -40.1% 0% 0% -33.8%
≤30d 7 +133.1% +110.9% 14% 14% +73.3%
≤90d 7 +133.1% +110.9% 14% 14% +73.3%
all 7 +133.1% +110.9% 14% 14% +73.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +110.9% 14% +73.3%
10% +90.7% 14% +56.7%
15% +72.3% 14% +41.6%
20% +55.4% 14% +27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +92% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,119 vs −$39 · ×28.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.79 per $1 lost it wins $4.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized+$948
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage12d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $350 $360 +$10 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $187 $180 −$7 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $200 $139 −$61 (-31%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $80 $58 −$22 (-27%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $139 −$11 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 −$30 -30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $442 −$86 -20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$16 -30%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $99 +$1,119 +1134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $32 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $72 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $39 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $257 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $57 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $356 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $36 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $96 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $43 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $442 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $154 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $49 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $48 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.71 · official $828.71 (match) · 42 history records