Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a03…47c1 sports 355 markets active 0h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized −$6 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%165W / 182L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,397
7 days−$3,210
14 days−$3,210
30 days−$3,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$264
other 7% −$168
crypto 1% +$24
world 0% −$70
economics 0% −$6
politics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -46.6% -51.7% 22% 22% -55.3%
≤30d 58 -46.6% -51.7% 22% 22% -55.3%
≤90d 58 -46.6% -51.7% 22% 22% -55.3%
all 347 -2.8% -12.1% 48% 47% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 47% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 45% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 42% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 35% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$64 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses165 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)347 / 355
History coverage328d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 100¢ $75 $147 +$72 (+96%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 100¢ $75 $132 +$57 (+75%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 100¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 27¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-31%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 13¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $333 +$152 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $679 −$352 -52%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 −$72 -95%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 +$50 +40%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $76 +$27 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 +$90 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$50 +197%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$29 +58%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$67 +165%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$29 -28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Kings vs. Oilers Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Islanders vs. Oilers Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Oilers vs. Penguins Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Predators vs. Oilers Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Jets vs. Saints Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Benin vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 16 $227 −$127 -56%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Texans (-1.5) Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Jun 16 $175 −$76 -44%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Texans (-6.5) Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Oilers vs. Predators Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 2m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 28m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $41 43m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $76 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $76 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $21 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $333 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $307 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $4 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $76 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $76 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 66¢ $76 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $20 17h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $76 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $76 17h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $10 17h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $26 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.42 · official $540.55 (match) · 883 history records