Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:50:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a03…a428 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
politics 26% +$1
other 13% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.3%
all 45 -0.8% -10.2% 24% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage288d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $12 −$1 -5%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $6 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $7 $0 -1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $2 $0 +8%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Sep 14 $2 $0 -23%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 09 $31 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $1 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $36 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $9 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $13 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $14 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $30 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $35 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $13 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $22 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $17 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $18 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.35 · official $33.63 (match) · 171 history records