Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a03…8ed4 crypto 1691 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,628 (+2%) realized +$1,662 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%618W / 597L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day125.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15,004
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -35.2% -41.3% 26% 24% +7.9%
≤30d 1215 +22.4% +10.7% 51% 47% +14.1%
≤90d 1215 +22.4% +10.7% 51% 47% +14.1%
all 1215 +22.4% +10.7% 51% 47% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 47% +14.1%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 40% +3.2%
15% -9.5% 35% -6.8%
20% -18.4% 30% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$20 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$1,662
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses618 / 597
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1215 / 1691
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day125.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down on June 19? Up 64¢ 42¢ $37 $24 −$12 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Up 48¢ 46¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Up 14¢ 2¢ $23 $2 −$20 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 2AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 8AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 6AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 1AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $19 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $12 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $177 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $83 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 48¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $85 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $70 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $35 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $66 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $28 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.90 · official $47.90 (match) · 3500 history records