Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a05…27cd crypto 121 markets active 2d ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%40W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$17
sports 20% −$22
other 14% +$11
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -8.2% -16.9% 34% 28% -12.5%
≤30d 102 -8.2% -16.9% 34% 28% -12.5%
≤90d 102 -8.2% -16.9% 34% 28% -12.5%
all 115 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 29% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 29% -17.1%
10% -26.1% 25% -25.1%
15% -33.2% 21% -32.3%
20% -39.8% 17% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses40 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 121
History coverage306d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$13 +628%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -76%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +153%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$12 +589%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$7 +228%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$19 +219%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 +$20 +980%
Son Heungmin: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Patrik Schick: 2+ Goals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +35%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 37¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records